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81.
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83.
Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory tools are applied to the problem of synthetic hydrology when model and parameter uncertainty exist. Issues such as optimal parameter estimation, use of synthetic generation in design problems, and the effects of parameter uncertainty on statistical estimation are discussed and applied to the problem of reservoir slorage-yield analysis.  相似文献   
84.
Although there is a large number of constitutive models for sand available in the literature it is believed that a fresh approach, striking a balance between complexity and theoretical rigour, is desirable. The approach here has certain conceptual links with the Cam Clay series of elastic–plastic models, but includes the more general starting assumption that the yield function, plastic potential and failure locus should be given quite distinct mathematical expressions. Possible physical bases for the proposed forms are discussed. Ways in which the parameters required to define the model may be determined are suggested and the use of the model is then demonstrated. Firstly, it is shown that, where a limited set of experimental data is available, the model is flexible enough to be able to match the test results. Secondly, it is shown that, where a wide range of test results has been produced, it is possible to determine the model constitutive parameters from a small number of tests and proceed to make satisfactory predictionsfor other, quite different, types of test. The model is developed for sand at a single initial density, but the way in which the constitutive parameters might be expected to vary with density is discussed. The model is described for conditions of triaxial compression, and extension to more general stress states will be needed before it can be put to the test of incorporation in, for example, a finite element program.  相似文献   
85.
Moon: Origin and evolution of multi-ring basins   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This paper summarizes current data and new observations on lunar basin systems. Parts 1–4 review earlier literature and give new crater-counts used to reconstruct basin histories. Among the results are: basin rings are defined by faults, hills, craters, and/or wrinkle ridges; all of these are inter-related; 2 plays a special role in the ratios of ring diameters; flooding occurred in many basins prior to the formation of the familiar front-side maria; 3 km is a typical depth of lava flooding in basins. Parts 5–11 interpret these results in terms of origin and evolution of basins. Polar concentrations of basins and old, large craters are found (Figures 28 and 29). Basins originated by impacts of very early planetesimals left over from or created during formation of the Moon (6). Concentric fractures were produced by the impacts. Concentric rings developed along fractures during subsequent sagging of the basin into partially melted substrata, along the lines of theory and experiments by Lance and Onat (1962) (Figures 36 and 37). There is marginal empirical evidence that some rings formed significantly after their basins (8). The structure of specific rings depended on the nature of volcanic products extruded. Wrinkle ridges, peak-rings, rings of craters, concentric graben, and central peaks are all consequences of basin-forming evolutionary processes (9, Figure 41), Flooding by lava was a final stage in basin evolution. Lava extruded from concentric ring-faults, wrinkle ridges, and crater and basin rims (10). Mascons are directly correlated with the amount of mare lava, but not correlated with basin age or morphology (11). Section 12 summarizes the results and compares them to those of other authors.  相似文献   
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We examine hypotheses for the formation of light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma using a combination of data from Mars Global Surveyor's Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). We divide Juventae Chasma into geomorphic units of (i) chasm wall rock, (ii) heavily cratered hummocky terrain, (iii) a mobile and largely crater-free sand sheet on the chasm floor, (iv) light-toned layered outcrop (LLO) material, and (v) chaotic terrain. Using surface temperatures derived from THEMIS infrared data and slopes from MOLA, we derive maps of thermal inertia, which are consistent with the geomorphic units that we identify. LLO thermal inertias range from ∼400 to 850 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2. Light-toned layered outcrops are distributed over a remarkably wide elevation range () from the chasm floor to the adjacent plateau surface. Geomorphic features, the absence of small craters, and high thermal inertia show that the LLOs are composed of sedimentary rock that is eroding relatively rapidly in the present epoch. We also present evidence for exhumation of LLO material from the west wall of the chasm, within chaotic and hummocky terrains, and within a small depression in the adjacent plateau. The data imply that at least some of the LLO material was deposited long before the adjacent Hesperian plateau basalts, and that Juventae Chasma underwent, and may still be undergoing, enlargement along its west wall due to wall rock collapse, chaotic terrain evolution, and exposure and removal of LLO material. The new data allow us to reassess possible origins of the LLOs. Gypsum, one of the minerals reported elsewhere as found in Juventae Chasma LLO material, forms only at low temperatures () and thus excludes a volcanic origin. Instead, the data are consistent with either multiple occurrences of lacustrine or airfall deposition over an extended period of time prior to emplacement of Hesperian lava flows on the plateau above the chasm.  相似文献   
88.
Recent changes in pan-arctic land-surface hydrology may significantly affect ecosystems and the built environment. While spatial and temporal patterns in land-surface hydrology trends can be identified using in situ observations of river discharge, the existing studies of cold-season river discharge are often inconsistent and incomparable because they use different methodologies, time periods and geographic regions. By using a comprehensive dataset of river discharge and a trend analysis applying one algorithm over a range of temporal and spatial scales, a synthesis of pan-arctic cold-season low-flow was performed. Cold-season low-flow is increasing over most of the pan-arctic, with decreasing flow in eastern North America and unchanged flow in small basins in the late twentieth century in eastern Eurasia as the main exceptions. This study provides the first synthesis of spatially distributed cold-season low-flow trends in the pan-arctic and indicates that widespread changes in pan-arctic subsurface hydrology are occurring.  相似文献   
89.
The properties of accretion discs around stars and brown dwarfs in the σ Ori cluster (age 3 Myr) are studied based on near-infrared (IR) time series photometry supported by mid-IR spectral energy distributions (SEDs). We monitor ∼30 young low-mass sources over eight nights in the J and K band using the duPont telescope at Las Campanas. We find three objects showing variability with J -band amplitudes  ≥0.5 mag  ; five additional objects exhibit low-level variations. All three highly variable sources have been previously identified as highly variable; thus, we establish the long-term nature of their flux changes. The light curves contain periodic components with time-scales of  ∼0.5–8 d  , but have additional irregular variations superimposed – the characteristic behaviour for classical T Tauri stars. Based on the colour variability, we conclude that hotspots are the dominant cause of variations in two objects (#19 and #33), including one likely brown dwarf, with spot temperatures in the range of 6000–7000 K. For the third one (#2), a brown dwarf or very low-mass star, inhomogeneities at the inner edge of the disc are the likely origin of variability. Based on mid-IR data from Spitzer , we confirm that the three highly variable sources are surrounded by circum-(sub)-stellar discs. They show typical SEDs for T Tauri-like objects. Using SED models, we infer an enhanced scaleheight in the disc for the object #2, which favours the detection of disc inhomogeneities in light curves and is thus consistent with the information from variability. In the σ Ori cluster, about every fifth accreting low-mass object shows persistent high-level photometric variability. We demonstrate that estimates for fundamental parameters in such objects can be significantly improved by determining the extent and origin of the variations.  相似文献   
90.
We model the kinematics and three-dimensional distribution of mass in a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 17 May 2008, using a comprehensive analysis of STEREO images of the CME. The CME is a surprisingly fast one for solar minimum, reaching velocities of up to 1120 km?s?1. It can be followed continuously from inception all the way out to 1 AU. We find that the appearance of the CME can be modeled reasonably well as a combination of two distinct fronts that expand outward in a self-similar fashion. The model implies that STEREO-B is struck by the weaker of these two fronts on 19 May, and the in situ instruments on STEREO-B do see a weak density and magnetic field enhancement at the expected time.  相似文献   
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